Truce Mostly Holds

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Ukraine’s warning prompts tighter observation of Russian movements, but Moscow does not convert the humanitarian pause into a major attack. Demining and evacuation convoys continue under local military coordination, with sporadic accusations but no decisive battlefield shift.

What it moves

Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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