• 

  40%0.0%

  Paxton Narrowly Wins

  Trump’s late intervention helps Ken Paxton consolidate Republican turnout, especially among rural voters and Trump-aligned suburban conservatives. Colin Allred-style Democratic gains in the suburbs are not enough for James Talarico to overcome Texas’s residual Republican lean.

  Energy +0.3% · Finance +0.2%

• 

  35%−0.4%

  Talarico Upsets Paxton

  Talarico’s narrow polling lead proves durable, and Paxton’s legal and ethics baggage limits Republican crossover support despite Trump’s rallies. A Democratic win in Texas would be treated as a major political story, though the immediate market impact remains modest unless it determines Senate control.

  Energy −0.5% · Finance −0.2% · Utilities +0.1%

• 

  17%+0.1%

  Race Remains Toss-Up

  The rallies energize Republican voters but also intensify Democratic fundraising and media attention for Talarico. Polling remains volatile, and the race enters Election Day as one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country.

  Energy +0.1%

• 

  8%−0.2%

  Late-Race Disruption

  A late controversy, legal filing, or damaging opposition-research release shifts attention away from Trump’s rallies and back to Paxton’s vulnerabilities. This creates headline risk but remains far below a national macro shock unless the seat becomes decisive for Senate control.

  Finance −0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.