• 

  35%+0.1%

  Paxton Holds Seat

  Paxton remains the slight favorite because Texas still leans Republican in federal races and Trump-backed GOP voters consolidate late. Talarico’s fundraising and advertising keep the race highly competitive, but Paxton narrowly preserves the Republican seat.

  Energy +0.3% · Finance +0.2%

• 

  33%−0.2%

  Talarico Upsets Paxton

  Talarico converts his fundraising edge into turnout and persuades enough independents to overcome Texas’s Republican baseline. A Democratic win would be treated as a major political upset, especially if it affects the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

  Energy −0.5% · Finance −0.3% · Healthcare +0.2%

• 

  20%−0.1%

  Recount Fight

  The polling tie proves accurate, and the final margin is close enough to trigger recount demands and litigation over provisional or mail ballots. This scenario is plausible because the last three public readings show a race moving within the margin of error.

  Energy −0.1%

• 

  12%0.0%

  Late Breakout

  A major late event, turnout surprise, or polling error turns a tied race into a clearer result. This is less likely than a narrow finish, but the volatility in recent polling leaves room for a late shift.

  Healthcare +0.1% · Energy +0.1% · Finance +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.