• 

  38%−0.4%

  Democratic Statewide Sweep

  The polling trend hardens into an Election Day realignment, with Hispanic backlash and suburban defections overwhelming the Republican ticket. Ted Cruz’s warning proves directionally correct as Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott both fail to consolidate late Republican support.

  Energy −1.0% · Utilities +0.5% · Finance −0.4%

• 

  32%−0.2%

  Democratic Split Gains

  Democrats convert the anti-GOP mood into one or two major statewide wins, but not the full collapse Cruz warned about. Split-ticket voting, late Republican spending, and incumbency advantages keep parts of the GOP statewide machine intact.

  Energy −0.3% · Utilities +0.1% · Healthcare −0.1%

• 

  24%+0.3%

  Republican Late Stabilization

  Republicans respond to the polling alarm with a disciplined turnout and donor mobilization effort in the final days. The party may still underperform historic Texas margins, but it avoids the statewide wipeout scenario.

  Energy +0.7% · Finance +0.3% · Utilities −0.2%

• 

  6%−0.3%

  Post-Election Litigation

  A very close statewide contest produces recounts, court filings, and competing claims about mail ballots or county certification. Given Paxton’s legal history and Texas’s national importance, even a narrow dispute would receive outsized political attention.

  Finance −0.2% · Energy −0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.