Democratic Statewide Sweep

38%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The polling trend hardens into an Election Day realignment, with Hispanic backlash and suburban defections overwhelming the Republican ticket. Ted Cruz’s warning proves directionally correct as Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott both fail to consolidate late Republican support.

What it moves

Energy−1.0%
Utilities+0.5%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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