Democratic Split Gains

32%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Democrats convert the anti-GOP mood into one or two major statewide wins, but not the full collapse Cruz warned about. Split-ticket voting, late Republican spending, and incumbency advantages keep parts of the GOP statewide machine intact.

What it moves

Energy−0.3%
Utilities+0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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