• 

  34%−0.3%

  War Funding Showdown

  The most likely path is a rapid institutional confrontation over the Iran war once Democrats take both chambers. Trump accepts the result publicly, but the White House resists binding limits on military operations, creating a budget-and-war-powers standoff.

  Industrials −1.0% · Energy −0.4% · Consumer Services +0.3%

• 

  27%0.0%

  Energy Relief Pivot

  Trump and congressional Democrats converge on gasoline-price relief because both parties see fuel costs as the decisive election issue. The near-term focus shifts from ideology to releases, refinery waivers, and consumer-facing measures.

  Energy −1.5% · Consumer Services +1.2% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%

• 

  21%+0.3%

  De-Escalation Diplomacy

  The election result strengthens officials arguing that the Iran war is politically unsustainable. Back-channel diplomacy accelerates, but the path depends on whether Tehran and Washington can agree on a verifiable pause.

  Energy −1.0% · Consumer Services +0.9% · Industrials −0.8%

• 

  18%−0.4%

  Oversight and Impeachment

  Democrats interpret the sweep as a mandate for aggressive oversight of the war and fuel-price fallout. The key uncertainty is whether investigations remain policy-focused or escalate into impeachment proceedings.

  Industrials −0.8% · Energy −0.4% · Technology −0.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.