War Funding Showdown

34%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is a rapid institutional confrontation over the Iran war once Democrats take both chambers. Trump accepts the result publicly, but the White House resists binding limits on military operations, creating a budget-and-war-powers standoff.

What it moves

Industrials−1.0%
Energy−0.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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