• 

  57%+0.2%

  Talarico Wins Texas

  James Talarico’s early lead holds as Democratic margins in Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio and suburban counties offset Republican rural turnout. This is the most likely path because final polling already showed Talarico narrowly ahead and early returns are consistent with that trajectory.

  Energy −0.8% · Healthcare +0.4% · Utilities +0.2%

• 

  27%+0.1%

  Paxton Comeback

  Paxton recovers as Election Day and rural returns narrow and then erase Talarico’s early lead. This remains plausible because early Texas returns can be demographically skewed, and Republican margins outside the major metro areas can arrive later.

  Energy +0.6% · Finance +0.3% · Utilities −0.2%

• 

  11%−0.2%

  Recount Fight

  The statewide margin lands close enough that the trailing campaign demands a recount and both parties mobilize legal teams. The result may still favor the initial leader, but certification becomes the central issue for several days.

  Energy −0.3% · Finance −0.2% · Healthcare +0.1%

• 

  5%−0.4%

  Extended Count Delay

  A large volume of ballots, reporting delays or localized administrative problems prevent a timely call. The uncertainty is temporary but keeps the race unresolved into the next trading sessions.

  Finance −0.4% · Technology −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.