• 

  48%0.0%

  Clear Talarico Win

  Talarico converts his Cameron County landslide and prior statewide polling lead into a clear Texas Senate victory. The most likely path is Democratic overperformance in the Rio Grande Valley, strong margins in urban counties, and enough suburban crossover voting to offset Paxton’s rural base.

  Energy −0.4% · Utilities +0.3% · Finance −0.1%

• 

  22%+0.1%

  Paxton Late Comeback

  Paxton survives the Cameron County blowout by running up late margins in rural counties, exurbs, and deeply Republican North Texas areas. This outcome requires the early South Texas signal to overstate Talarico’s statewide strength or for late-counted Republican precincts to dominate the remaining vote.

  Energy +0.4% · Finance +0.2%

• 

  18%−0.2%

  Contested Texas Count

  The Cameron County margin signals a close or surprising race, but the statewide result remains unresolved because of late mail ballots, provisional ballots, county-level disputes, or recount thresholds. This scenario creates the largest near-term uncertainty without necessarily changing the policy outlook immediately.

  Energy −0.1%

• 

  12%−0.3%

  Senate Control Pivot

  Talarico’s Texas win proves decisive for control of the U.S. Senate, making the Cameron County result nationally significant rather than merely state-level. This produces a larger but still moderate market reaction as investors reassess regulation, tax policy, nominations, and committee control.

  Energy −0.9% · Finance −0.5% · Utilities +0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.