Paxton Late Comeback

22%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Paxton survives the Cameron County blowout by running up late margins in rural counties, exurbs, and deeply Republican North Texas areas. This outcome requires the early South Texas signal to overstate Talarico’s statewide strength or for late-counted Republican precincts to dominate the remaining vote.

What it moves

Energy+0.4%
Finance+0.2%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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