Clear Talarico Win

48%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Talarico converts his Cameron County landslide and prior statewide polling lead into a clear Texas Senate victory. The most likely path is Democratic overperformance in the Rio Grande Valley, strong margins in urban counties, and enough suburban crossover voting to offset Paxton’s rural base.

What it moves

Energy−0.4%
Utilities+0.3%
Finance−0.1%
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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