Talarico Wins Texas

57%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

James Talarico’s early lead holds as Democratic margins in Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio and suburban counties offset Republican rural turnout. This is the most likely path because final polling already showed Talarico narrowly ahead and early returns are consistent with that trajectory.

What it moves

Energy−0.8%
Healthcare+0.4%
Utilities+0.2%
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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