Possible scenario
Recount Fight
20%
−0.1%
The polling tie proves accurate, and the final margin is close enough to trigger recount demands and litigation over provisional or mail ballots. This scenario is plausible because the last three public readings show a race moving within the margin of error.
What it moves
- Energy−0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.