Talarico Upsets Paxton

33%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Talarico converts his fundraising edge into turnout and persuades enough independents to overcome Texas’s Republican baseline. A Democratic win would be treated as a major political upset, especially if it affects the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

What it moves

Energy−0.5%
Finance−0.3%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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