Paxton Holds Seat

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Paxton remains the slight favorite because Texas still leans Republican in federal races and Trump-backed GOP voters consolidate late. Talarico’s fundraising and advertising keep the race highly competitive, but Paxton narrowly preserves the Republican seat.

What it moves

Energy+0.3%
Finance+0.2%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?