Talarico Upsets Paxton

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Talarico’s narrow polling lead proves durable, and Paxton’s legal and ethics baggage limits Republican crossover support despite Trump’s rallies. A Democratic win in Texas would be treated as a major political story, though the immediate market impact remains modest unless it determines Senate control.

What it moves

Energy−0.5%
Finance−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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