Late-Race Disruption

8%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A late controversy, legal filing, or damaging opposition-research release shifts attention away from Trump’s rallies and back to Paxton’s vulnerabilities. This creates headline risk but remains far below a national macro shock unless the seat becomes decisive for Senate control.

What it moves

Finance−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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