Paxton Narrowly Wins

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Trump’s late intervention helps Ken Paxton consolidate Republican turnout, especially among rural voters and Trump-aligned suburban conservatives. Colin Allred-style Democratic gains in the suburbs are not enough for James Talarico to overcome Texas’s residual Republican lean.

What it moves

Energy+0.3%
Finance+0.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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