• 

  85%

  +0.2%

  Coordinated emergency diesel or distillate stock release without U.S. export restrictions

  An emergency distillate release lifts the broad equity market 0.2%, adding $192B, as lower fuel costs modestly support most sectors. Refiners lose most because a 12% crack-spread decline overwhelms the broader benefit, while technology and consumer-facing sectors gain.

  Energy −1.0% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.4% · Technology +0.3%

• 

  12%

  −0.3%

  Binding U.S. diesel and distillate export limits

  Binding export limits redirect diesel and distillate supply into the US market, cutting refining spreads 15% and driving the broad equity market down 0.3%, or $288 billion. Refiners bear the concentrated losses, while airlines and shipping benefit from lower fuel economics; most other sectors mainly follow weaker market sentiment.

  Energy −1.3% · Technology −0.3% · Non-Energy Materials −0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.