• 

  90%

  0.0%

  Russian force-generation failure under Ukraine-war attrition and manpower strain

  Russia’s force-generation failure trims escalation capacity but does not end combat, lift sanctions, or create a global growth impulse; broad equities therefore remain flat over 20 days. The rotation favors defensive consumer holdings while energy and defense-linked industrials lose some conflict premium, led by a $2.71 billion decline in Energy.

  Energy −0.1%

• 

  15%

  −0.5%

  Sustained increase in Russia’s deployable Ukraine-war ground force by 2027-03-31

  A sustained Russian force expansion raises geopolitical risk and pulls the broad equity market down 0.5% over 20 days, erasing $480B in equity value. Technology bears the largest dollar loss, while defense, energy, fertilizer and tanker names gain from greater security, supply and transport risk. Ukraine-linked telecommunications are hardest hit: Kyivstar (KYIV) falls 3.9% and VEON (VEON) falls 2.9%.

  Technology −0.7% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.5% · Finance −0.5%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.