• 

  45%+0.2%

  Results Upheld, Coalition Forms

  The most likely path is that the Central Elections Committee and courts treat the foreign-funding probe as a criminal and campaign-finance matter, not a basis to void ballots. Gadi Eisenkot is able to move forward with coalition negotiations while Shin Bet and police continue investigating Qatar, Iran and Pakistan links.

  Technology +0.1% · Finance +0.1%

• 

  25%−0.2%

  Certification With Delays

  The vote results remain valid, but legal petitions, coalition bargaining and pressure from Netanyahu allies delay formation of a new government. A caretaker cabinet remains in place for weeks, keeping domestic political uncertainty elevated without creating a full constitutional crisis.

  Technology −0.1% · Finance −0.1%

• 

  20%−0.2%

  Influence Probe Widens

  Investigators uncover real foreign-linked financing or influence operations, but the evidence points to campaign misconduct rather than ballot manipulation. The political result stands while Israel pursues criminal cases, diplomatic complaints and tighter campaign-finance rules.

  Industrials +0.1% · Energy +0.1% · Technology −0.1%

• 

  10%−0.4%

  Political Crisis Deepens

  A lower-probability path is that the results technically stand but the foreign-funding probe destroys coalition legitimacy or bargaining capacity. Israel could move toward another election or face severe political disruption even without a formal annulment of the 2026 result.

  Technology −0.3% · Finance −0.2% · Industrials +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.