• 

  35%+0.4%

  GOP Policy Moderation

  Republican leaders conclude that a -35 net approval rating threatens down-ballot losses and push the White House to reduce the most unpopular economic pressures. Trump keeps combative rhetoric but allows selective tariff exemptions and a less expansive posture on Iran to limit further voter damage.

  Consumer Cyclicals +0.6% · Industrials +0.4% · Technology +0.3%

• 

  28%−0.3%

  Republican Defections Grow

  The record-low net approval rating accelerates congressional Republican efforts to distance themselves from Trump before the midterms. The result is greater legislative friction, more oversight of Iran policy, and higher odds of fiscal or tariff-related standoffs.

  Industrials −0.4% · Finance −0.3% · Energy −0.3%

• 

  22%−0.8%

  Trump Doubles Down

  Trump rejects internal advice to moderate and treats the record-low approval reading as a base-mobilization problem. He leans harder into tariffs, attacks the Federal Reserve, and defends the Iran campaign, increasing policy uncertainty into the election stretch.

  Consumer Cyclicals −1.0% · Technology −0.5% · Industrials −0.5%

• 

  15%+0.1%

  Democratic Wave Priced

  The polling collapse leads forecasters and investors to assign higher odds to a Democratic midterm wave. Markets begin to price a post-election change in tariff, oversight, tax, and regulatory probabilities, with sector impacts depending on whether the expected outcome is divided government or broader Democratic control.

  Consumer Cyclicals +0.6% · Industrials +0.3% · Energy −0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.