Republican Defections Grow

28%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The record-low net approval rating accelerates congressional Republican efforts to distance themselves from Trump before the midterms. The result is greater legislative friction, more oversight of Iran policy, and higher odds of fiscal or tariff-related standoffs.

What it moves

Industrials−0.4%
Finance−0.3%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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