Possible scenario
Trump Doubles Down
22%
−0.8%
Trump rejects internal advice to moderate and treats the record-low approval reading as a base-mobilization problem. He leans harder into tariffs, attacks the Federal Reserve, and defends the Iran campaign, increasing policy uncertainty into the election stretch.
What it moves
- Consumer Cyclicals−1.0%
- Technology−0.5%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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