• 

  42%+0.2%

  Rogers Gains Decisively

  Haley Stevens’ endorsement of Mike Rogers becomes the defining late-campaign break in the Michigan Senate race. Abdul El-Sayed struggles to consolidate Democrats after days of public conflict, while Rogers frames the endorsement as proof of bipartisan confidence.

  Finance +0.6% · Energy +0.5% · Healthcare −0.4%

• 

  25%0.0%

  Democrats Contain Damage

  The backlash to Stevens’ endorsement causes Democratic officials, unions, and progressive groups to rapidly close ranks behind Abdul El-Sayed. The episode still damages party unity, but Rogers fails to convert it into enough late movement.

  Healthcare +0.3% · Energy −0.3% · Finance −0.2%

• 

  16%0.0%

  Stevens Reverses Course

  Under pressure from Democratic leaders and Michigan party officials, Stevens softens or withdraws her endorsement of Rogers. The reversal limits some harm to El-Sayed but keeps the feud in the news during the final stretch.

  Healthcare +0.2% · Energy −0.1%

• 

  10%0.0%

  Party Discipline Fight

  The endorsement becomes a national Democratic discipline issue rather than only a Michigan campaign story. Party leaders weigh sanctions against Stevens, while Republicans use the infighting to argue Democrats are divided.

• 

  7%0.0%

  Disputed Election Finish

  The endorsement contributes to an exceptionally close result, and both parties prepare for recounts, ballot challenges, and litigation. Because the race may affect Senate control, the uncertainty receives national attention.

  Finance +0.2% · Healthcare +0.1% · Energy +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.