• 

  34%0.0%

  Democratic Rift Deepens

  Haley Stevens continues distancing herself from Abdul El-Sayed after the canceled joint events and the Detroit church appearance with Mike Rogers. The dispute over anti-Stevens PAC ads and Israel-related messaging hardens into a final-days Democratic split.

• 

  28%0.0%

  Party Truce Holds

  Democratic leaders intervene quickly to prevent the dispute from becoming the closing narrative of the race. Stevens and El-Sayed avoid another public confrontation and shift messaging back to abortion rights, labor, and Rogers’ Republican record.

• 

  22%0.0%

  Rogers Exploits Split

  Mike Rogers turns the Stevens appearance into proof that Democratic divisions are spilling into public view. His campaign frames him as a more stable choice for suburban, religious, and security-focused voters uncomfortable with El-Sayed.

• 

  16%0.0%

  El-Sayed Base Mobilizes

  The Stevens-Rogers appearance triggers a backlash from El-Sayed’s progressive supporters, who argue that Stevens crossed a partisan line. The controversy energizes younger, Arab American, Muslim, and left-leaning voters in the final campaign window.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.