• 

  45%0.0%

  Unity Effort Holds

  Haley Stevens accepts Abdul El-Sayed’s rejection of the Rebellion PAC ad as sufficient and resumes cooperation with the Democratic nominee. Michigan Democrats use the reconciliation to refocus the Senate race on party unity, turnout, and the Republican nominee rather than the primary feud.

• 

  30%0.0%

  Uneasy Truce Persists

  Stevens accepts El-Sayed’s response to the Rebellion PAC ad but remains reluctant to fully campaign with him. The feud fades from the front page, yet the Democratic coalition remains somewhat strained in suburban and establishment-aligned circles.

• 

  15%0.0%

  Feud Reopens

  The current détente breaks down if another ad or surrogate attack revives Stevens’s complaints about campaign conduct. Republican and national media attention could then shift back to Democratic disunity in a competitive Michigan Senate race.

• 

  10%0.0%

  Outside Spending Reset

  The dispute becomes a broader fight over how outside progressive groups operate in Democratic primaries and general elections. El-Sayed and party leaders may try to impose clearer boundaries on allied PAC activity to prevent further damage.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.