• 

  52%0.0%

  El-Sayed Wins Clearly

  The Cook Political Report move to Lean Democrat proves directionally correct, with Abdul El-Sayed benefiting from late Democratic consolidation and favorable polling. Mike Rogers underperforms in suburban Wayne, Oakland, and Washtenaw County margins despite Haley Stevens’s endorsement.

  Healthcare −0.3% · Finance −0.2% · Utilities +0.1%

• 

  20%−0.1%

  El-Sayed Narrowly Prevails

  The Lean Democrat rating is correct but overstates the margin, with Rogers benefiting from crossover voters and Stevens-aligned moderates. El-Sayed still wins because Democratic turnout in Detroit, Ann Arbor, and inner suburbs is enough to overcome erosion among independents.

  Healthcare −0.1% · Finance −0.1% · Utilities +0.1%

• 

  20%+0.1%

  Rogers Upsets El-Sayed

  The rating shift proves too late or too optimistic for Democrats, as Rogers converts Haley Stevens’s endorsement into meaningful moderate and independent support. A Republican upset is plausible if turnout patterns break against Democrats or El-Sayed’s progressive profile weakens him outside the party base.

  Finance +0.4% · Energy +0.4% · Industrials +0.3%

• 

  8%−0.2%

  Result Becomes Contested

  The Cook shift signals a Democratic edge, but the race remains close enough that ballot challenges, county-level disputes, or recount litigation delay final resolution. This is less likely than a straightforward El-Sayed win, but credible in a high-stakes open-seat contest with polarized coalitions.

  Finance −0.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.