• 

  45%+0.2%

  Rogers Narrow Win

  The string of Democratic endorsements from Mary Waters, Haley Stevens, Hansen Clarke, and other Michigan figures signals meaningful crossover support in Detroit, Macomb County, and suburban Oakland County. Rogers wins the Senate race narrowly, with ticket-splitting and moderate Democratic defections outweighing Democratic turnout in Ann Arbor and Detroit.

  Finance +0.4% · Energy +0.3% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  25%−0.1%

  Democratic Rebound

  The endorsements generate headlines but fail to translate into enough crossover votes. Democratic turnout in Detroit, Ann Arbor, Flint, and Lansing offsets Rogers’ gains among moderate Democrats and independents.

  Finance −0.2% · Energy −0.1% · Healthcare +0.1%

• 

  20%+0.2%

  Rogers Clear Win

  The Mary Waters endorsement becomes part of a broader visible break among older Detroit Democrats, union households, and national-security Democrats. Rogers outperforms polling by several points and claims a clear mandate as Michigan’s new Republican senator.

  Finance +0.3% · Energy +0.3% · Industrials +0.3%

• 

  10%−0.2%

  Recount Fight

  The Democratic defections make the race extremely close, and delayed absentee counts in Wayne County and Oakland County keep the winner unclear. Both parties send legal teams to Michigan, creating short-lived uncertainty over Senate control.

  Finance −0.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.