Rogers Narrow Win

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The string of Democratic endorsements from Mary Waters, Haley Stevens, Hansen Clarke, and other Michigan figures signals meaningful crossover support in Detroit, Macomb County, and suburban Oakland County. Rogers wins the Senate race narrowly, with ticket-splitting and moderate Democratic defections outweighing Democratic turnout in Ann Arbor and Detroit.

What it moves

Finance+0.4%
Energy+0.3%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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