El-Sayed Narrowly Prevails

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Lean Democrat rating is correct but overstates the margin, with Rogers benefiting from crossover voters and Stevens-aligned moderates. El-Sayed still wins because Democratic turnout in Detroit, Ann Arbor, and inner suburbs is enough to overcome erosion among independents.

What it moves

Healthcare−0.1%
Finance−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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