Rogers Upsets El-Sayed

The rating shift proves too late or too optimistic for Democrats, as Rogers converts Haley Stevens’s endorsement into meaningful moderate and independent support. A Republican upset is plausible if turnout patterns break against Democrats or El-Sayed’s progressive profile weakens him outside the party base.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.