Decision Desk HQ now rates North Carolina as a "Likely D" contest with a win probability of 82% for Democrat Roy Cooper. Similar trends are appearing in Georgia, which has an 87% Democratic win probability. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has already deprioritized both states, and Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina recently suggested the party triage its resources toward Texas, Alaska, and Ohio to preserve its Senate majority.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Senate Leadership Fund Shifts Tens of Millions From North Carolina in Retreat
US Politics18 days ago
The GOP's top Senate super PAC has canceled every remaining advertisement in North Carolina as it abandons its hopes of winning the seat this autumn. The Senate Leadership Fund is redirecting tens of millions of dollars away from nominee Michael Whatley to support other battlegrounds, including a new seven-figure campaign for incumbent Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas. This full retreat follows an initial investment of more than $30M in the state and indicates the party no longer sees a viable path to victory.
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