Possible scenario
GOP Triage Works
24% Chance
Republicans effectively concede that North Carolina is slipping away but use the redirected SLF money to defend a broader Senate map. The party loses the Cooper-Whatley race while improving its odds in contests where the marginal ad dollar still matters more.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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