Possible scenario
Whatley Recovers Late
18% Chance
Republicans decide the SLF retreat went too far after private polling shows Whatley back within the margin of error. Trump rallies, cheaper outside groups, and improved rural turnout make the race competitive again.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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