Iran Reviews Mediators’ Nuclear Proposals While Refusing to Negotiate Over Strait of Hormuz | Tilt

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Iran Reviews Mediators’ Nuclear Proposals While Refusing to Negotiate Over Strait of Hormuz

Iran is reviewing “concrete proposals” from Qatari mediators on the future of its nuclear program as part of talks held in Tehran and Doha to end the war with the US, the New York Times reported, citing five officials briefed on the negotiations. Vice President JD Vance is pushing for a negotiated settlement, though the two sides remain divided over Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz.

Even as nuclear diplomacy continues, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei told Al Mayadeen on Thursday that Tehran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Washington meets all seven of its conditions and ruled out any negotiations over that decision. Earlier Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi spoke by phone about arrangements to resume navigation in the waterway, with Oman saying it is working with Iran on a joint control system for the strait that would end the state of war.

How it could play out

−8.0%Impact on the S&P 500 across 3 scenarios (−12.8% to +4.3%)

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

How it could play out

Portfolio

S&P 500

Story, how it could play out

3 ways this could read

Possible futures, not reported news · chances and moves from Tilt’s model

−7.5%
Strait of Hormuz intermittent restricted throughput
Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.
Consumer Cyclicals −9.5% · Technology −8.8% · Industrials −7.8%
−12.8%
Strait of Hormuz commercial energy transit cessation
A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.
+4.3%
Sustained Strait of Hormuz commercial-transit normalization without political settlement
Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.
Consumer Cyclicals +5.3% · Technology +5.2% · Non-Energy Materials +4.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.

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Strait of Hormuz intermittent restricted throughput

Strait of Hormuz commercial energy transit cessation

Sustained Strait of Hormuz commercial-transit normalization without political settlement