• 

  35%

  −1.9%

  Second-Leg Selloff

  The most likely near-term path is another bout of selling as investors reassess AI infrastructure returns and crowded semiconductor positioning. The 12% chip-stock plunge is large enough to trigger risk controls, margin reductions, and short-term de-grossing across AI-linked names.

  Technology −2.9% · Industrials −0.6%

• 

  30%

  +0.3%

  Orderly Valuation Reset

  The semiconductor decline stabilizes without a broader market break. Investors accept a lower valuation range for AI-linked chip stocks but do not yet abandon the long-term AI demand thesis.

  Technology +0.4%

• 

  25%

  +1.7%

  AI Spending Reassurance

  Chip shares recover if major AI buyers and suppliers signal that the capex cycle remains intact. This outcome is plausible because the selloff appears driven more by valuation and spending fears than by confirmed order cancellations.

  Technology +2.7% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  10%

  −1.7%

  Broader Risk Contagion

  A lower-probability but important outcome is that semiconductor weakness turns into a broader AI and megacap technology de-risking event. This would likely require investors to conclude that AI infrastructure returns are weakening across both chip suppliers and cloud platforms.

  Technology −2.9% · Finance −0.6% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.6%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.