• 

  35%

  −1.5%

  Freeze Becomes Policy

  Governor-elect Hinojosa treats the election as a mandate to halt large new ERCOT data-center interconnections while grid reliability and water-use rules are rewritten. Markets price a real near-term hit to Texas-heavy AI infrastructure pipelines rather than a campaign talking point.

  Technology −2.8% · Utilities −1.8% · Industrials −1.6%

• 

  30%

  +0.7%

  Negotiated Carve-Outs

  Hinojosa’s transition team uses the freeze threat to force concessions rather than stop construction outright. Large data-center developers agree to stricter demand-response, behind-the-meter generation, and grid-upgrade funding, limiting the market damage.

  Technology +1.3% · Industrials +1.0% · Utilities +0.7%

• 

  20%

  +0.5%

  Courts Limit Freeze

  Data-center developers, utilities, and local governments challenge the incoming freeze as exceeding state authority or violating existing contracts. The market reaction depends on whether courts quickly block implementation or leave a prolonged legal overhang.

  Technology +1.0% · Industrials +0.7% · Utilities +0.7%

• 

  15%

  −0.8%

  Capacity Relocation Accelerates

  Instead of waiting for Austin, cloud and AI developers begin moving incremental projects to states with available power, tax incentives, or clearer permitting. The market starts distinguishing between Texas-exposed names and national beneficiaries of displaced demand.

  Technology −1.6% · Utilities −0.6% · Non-Energy Materials −0.5%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.