• 

  38%0.0%

  Roster Error Resolved

  The most likely outcome is that the omission is explained as a staff or scheduling error rather than a formal break. Given that Stevens had already agreed to campaign with Abdul El-Sayed, both sides have incentives to avoid turning a roster dispute into a larger Democratic Party fight.

• 

  30%0.0%

  Rift Escalates

  The omission may signal that relations between El-Sayed and Stevens have deteriorated after Stevens demanded a condemnation of the anti-Israel PAC ad. In this scenario, the Sunday event becomes a visible marker of tension between progressive and pro-Israel Democratic constituencies.

• 

  20%0.0%

  Managed Compromise

  Both campaigns may try to contain the dispute by narrowing Stevens’ role rather than fully restoring or canceling the joint appearance. This outcome lets Stevens maintain distance from the PAC ad while allowing El-Sayed to avoid a high-profile cancellation.

• 

  12%0.0%

  Event Disrupted

  A less likely but plausible outcome is that the controversy makes the planned Sunday event too politically messy to execute. The campaign could delay, rebrand, or cancel the stop while attempting to shift attention back to its core message.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.