From todayIran’s IRGC Says It Shot Down US MQ-1 Drone Over Qeshm Island

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  87%

  −7.5%

  Strait of Hormuz intermittent restricted throughput

  Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.

  Consumer Cyclicals −9.5% · Technology −8.8% · Industrials −7.8%

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  13%

  −12.8%

  Strait of Hormuz commercial energy transit cessation

  A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.

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  2%

  +4.3%

  Sustained Strait of Hormuz commercial-transit normalization without political settlement

  Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.

  Consumer Cyclicals +5.3% · Technology +5.2% · Non-Energy Materials +4.4%