Russian Retaliation Escalates

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Moscow treats the Sheremetyevo-area fire and recent refinery attacks as justification for a larger missile and drone retaliation against Ukrainian infrastructure. This would be a material geopolitical escalation, though still short of a regime-change or systemic market crisis.

What it moves

Industrials+0.6%
Energy+0.6%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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