Peace Talks Unravel

The failure to extend the Kherson ceasefire becomes a political dispute that damages the broader U.S.-backed peace process. This is less likely than a localized military setback, but it would have a clearer cross-market impact because investors would mark down the probability of a negotiated pause.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.