Localized Fighting Resumes

The most likely path is a return to limited shelling and drone activity around Kherson and Oleshky without a broader collapse of the U.S.-backed diplomatic track. Russia’s rejection of the extension raises humanitarian risks, but both Moscow and Kyiv still have incentives to keep talks alive.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.