Dan Ives pulled forward his forecast for peak Big Tech capital expenditure growth to 2027 from 2028 to 2029 and warned that 10% to 20% of the 800 to 1,000 planned US AI data centers could be scrapped or face lengthy delays after Democratic midterm wins. Ives cut his data center forecast by 10% and projected that Big Tech equity and debt issuance will drop about 25% over the next year as construction slows into 2028, though he still expects hyperscaler spending to exceed $1 trillion in 2027 and said a slower buildout would curb excessive capital burn.
The selloff in AI infrastructure spread to credit and Asian hardware markets as CoreWeave’s 2031 unsecured bonds fell as low as 79.5 cents on the dollar and yields on its 2030 and 2032 notes topped 15%. CoreWeave’s CEO said the company anticipates no impact from the midterms on existing customer commitments or backlog, citing 1.5 GW of active power and 4.2 GW of contracted capacity. On Wednesday, CoreWeave shares fell 9.9%, IREN 11.2%, Nebius 6.7%, Vertiv 12.9% and GE Vernova 9.3%, while Texas power producers Vistra and NRG dropped 13.8% and 13.5% and chipmakers Marvell and Nvidia slid 7.1% and 3.2% despite a 1% gain in the Nasdaq 100. In Asia on Thursday, South Korea’s Kospi fell 5.28% as SK Hynix lost 9.46% and Samsung Electronics dropped 7.57%, while Japan’s Advantest and Kioxia sank about 15% and 13%.