Claude Moat Holds

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Independent testing shows Claude Haiku 4.5 remains stronger across broader reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. Recursive still wins attention in GPU research, but investors and enterprise buyers view the gap as narrower than the headline implied.

What it moves

Technology+0.2%
Business Services+0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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