• 

  45%+0.3%

  Eisenkot Coalition Forms

  Gadi Eisenkot succeeds in forming a narrow anti-Netanyahu government after the United Arab List accepts budgetary, policing and civil-equality terms. This is the most likely path because Ra’am has already crossed the key threshold of accepting terms, while Netanyahu’s bloc remains short.

  Finance +0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%

• 

  25%0.0%

  Outside Support Deal

  Ra’am accepts a confidence-and-supply arrangement rather than full cabinet participation, allowing a government to pass an investiture vote while avoiding some backlash inside Arab society and among Jewish centrist voters. This would mirror parts of the 2021 Bennett-Lapid experiment but with more caution after the Gaza war and subsequent polarization.

  Finance +0.1%

• 

  20%−0.2%

  Negotiations Stall

  Talks slow after disagreements over policing powers, Bedouin recognition, Gaza policy or nationalist-party red lines. The headline still marks progress, but the coalition math remains fragile and both Netanyahu and Eisenkot continue courting small factions and defectors.

  Finance −0.3% · Industrials +0.1%

• 

  10%−0.4%

  Snap Election Path

  Coalition talks ultimately fail and Israel moves toward another election or an extended caretaker period. This remains less likely because Ra’am’s acceptance of terms creates a pathway to a majority, but Israel’s fragmented party system and post-war polarization still make breakdown plausible.

  Finance −0.5% · Energy +0.2% · Industrials +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.