Negotiations Stall

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Talks slow after disagreements over policing powers, Bedouin recognition, Gaza policy or nationalist-party red lines. The headline still marks progress, but the coalition math remains fragile and both Netanyahu and Eisenkot continue courting small factions and defectors.

What it moves

Finance−0.3%
Industrials+0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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