US refineries are running at their hardest seasonal rate in 25 years, delaying typical October maintenance to capitalize on high profit margins and pressure from President Trump. This backlog of deferred outages will shift supply constraints into the future, according to Morgan Stanley, which forecasts that global fuel markets will remain tight until at least mid-2027.
The bank expects a flurry of refinery work to peak in the second quarter of 2027 with planned outages reaching 3.4M bpd. This concentration of maintenance will likely keep gasoil and diesel prices higher for longer than current forward curves suggest, as operators cannot delay necessary work indefinitely.