Throughput at Russian oil facilities has climbed by an estimated 0.5 million to 1 million barrels per day following a suspension of Ukrainian drone attacks on the sector. The increase in processing capacity could boost Russian diesel exports by as much as 360,000 barrels per day, a volume that may impact international fuel markets if sustained.
The pause in strikes, which Ukrainian officials enacted after diplomatic pressure from President Trump, began early last week and is slated to continue until after the U.S. midterm elections. While targeting of refineries has slowed, drone activity remains high; Russian air defenses reported intercepting more than 1,300 drones in one day recently, compared to a recent daily average of 600.